Looking at the forgery through the trees

Well, for once the press is taking its job of fact-checking seriously.  And while the question of whether the key documents that Bush used to justify the Iraq were forgeries does not appear to interest the Fourth Estate, these Bush Texas Air National Guard Memos have struck a chord.

There evidence that at least one of these memos is a forgery is convincing, though far from a certainty. Assuming, for the sake of argument, that these memos were not typed in the early 1970's, I see 4 possible explanations:

1.) Some idiot forged these docs and slid them under Dan Rather's door in a misguided effort to help Kerry. (Or some variation thereof).

2.) The memos are a more recent transcription of earlier (possilby handwritten) memos.

(Nothing exciting with either of these possibilities.)

3.)  (aka the Karl Rove is a genius theory):  Rove leaks these clear forgeries in an attempt to 1.) deflect attention from the substantive question of whether or not Bush fulfilled his National Guard duties, and 2.) make the Kerry campaign look desparate and slimey.

This would be textbook Rove.  Very cunning and effective if played right.  Rove would have assumed that some damning information about Bush's service would come out at this time.  Leaking these memos would help detract attention from the substance of the story and would also call into question the credibility of the remaining otherwise unquestioned evidence.  Brilliant!!

4.) (aka the Kerry's campaign is a genious theory):  This theory is even more cunning and damaging.  By leaking this memo, Kerry gets these accusations about Bush out into the open.  As we saw in the Swift Boat ads, it doesn't matter if the accusations are false, so long as people hear them.  Then, when people start to notice the painfully obvious forgery, Kerry lets the outcry build a bit, and then blasts CBS for publishing unfounded and scurilous charges about a candidate's service record without.

This message plays into the repeated theme of accountability and marks an attempt to draw a clear distinction between him and Bush.  Bush has steadfastly refused to hold himself accountable for any of his mistakes (war in Iraq, economy, prescription drug, 9/11, etc.).  Kerry can build off of this theme and by denouncing the forgeries show that he will not stand for such falsehoods and manipulations, even if they benefit him.

Its a very subtle move, but I do get the sense the campaign is trying to keep this view of Bush fresh in the voters' minds.

Of these theories, I think 1 and 3 are the most likely.  I'm afraid Kerry's folks haven't shown the cunning to pull of something like this.  It will be interesting to see how this develops early next week.

Update:  It looks like the actual explanation is #5:  They're real.  The expert who originally claimed the memo was forged has retracted his statement, and now believes the document could have been produced by a typewriter in wide use at that time.  Now, can we discuss the contents of the memo?  And then, can we pretty please start talking about the issues??  Please??